Thanks for Visiting!

Register for free to get the full story.

Sign Up
Already have a Placer.ai account? Log In

Outlet Mall Recovery

By 
Jocelyn Bauer
October 20, 2020
Outlet Mall Recovery
SHARE
Explore our free tools to get timely insights into key industries
Check out the latest trends for
No items found.
Key Takeaways

There is no doubt that malls took a serious hit during the spread of COVID.  However, as we’ve seen in previous reports  analyzing the different recoveries of indoor and outdoor centers, the pace of recovery can be highly tied to format. So, we decided to dive into an intrigued subset of the outdoor center, outlet malls, to see how they’re recovering and stacking up against other competition. 

Overall Sector Strength 

When looking at eleven outlet malls across the country in states such as New York, Texas, California and Illinois, we see a positive trend across the board.  Each center’s traffic improved dramatically since the spring, shrinking the gap with 2019 traffic levels.  While the group saw an average visit decline of 26.9% in August year over year, by September, that gap was down to just 12.8%.  

And we see this trend continuing when looking at weekly data. When analyzing the week beginning September 28th we see traffic closest to 2019 levels for almost every mall measured.  The average weekly year-over-year traffic for the collective group was down just 9.3% year over year, 3.3% closer to ‘normalcy’ than the week prior where visits were 12.6% down. 

Lingering Regional Effects

And, as we’ve seen before there are different levels of recovery based on state and/or region. Among the malls measured, Grove City Premium Outlets and The Crossings Outlets in Pennsylvania have seen the strongest traffic trends. Visits for Grove City were an impressive 9.9% above 2019 levels for June. And, while the traffic gap did increase for both July and August likely owing to a uniquely strong back to school season in 2019, traffic shot back up to 3.1% up for September. Similarly, visits for the Crossing Premium Outlets was 2.9% above, year over year for September. 

Yet it’s important to note that Pennsylvania has not seen a significant resurgence in cases like we have seen in Texas or California.  When we analyzed two outlet centers in Texas, we saw recovery, but not at the same pace as what took place in Pennsylvania. The average year-over-year monthly decline for the two centers analyzed in Texas from June through September was 27.9%. Though, critically, both saw very strong September visits rates with San Marcos Outlets down just 0.3% year over year and Houston Premium Outlets up 6.4%.

While geographic location certainly affects the rate of recovery, the overall sector is still showing a positive trend back to pre-COVID levels.  

How do they Stack up against Indoor and Outdoor malls? 

So, how do they compare to a traditional indoor mall, or other types of open air centers? When looking at year-over-year weekly data for September 28th, we see visits for outdoor malls down 23.6% and indoor centers down 33.2% year over year. While this is fairly impressive given the current environment, it falls below numbers for outlet centers. The average for the outlet malls for that same week was down 9.3%. 

But the big question is why? Outlet malls benefit from a few factors that are likely playing a key role in enabling them to recover faster. Firstly, they generally have a clear value orientation with many retailers leveraging these locations for off price deals. This is a huge advantage in a wider environment of economic uncertainty creating a clear and immediate pull. Secondly, a lot of them are outside. The ability to provide a ‘mall-esque’ experience in an open air environment where social distancing is less of a clear concern is uniquely appealing when consumers clearly miss that shopping option. Finally, they are well suited to mission driven shopping patterns where visitors want to accomplish more with each visit.

Will these strengths continue? Can outlet malls keep up this impressive pace? Check back in with Placer.ai to find out. 

Learn how downtown regions across US cities are measuring up with our free tools.
Check out the latest trends for
No items found.

Related Topics

Explore our free tools to get timely insights into key industries
Check out the latest trends for
No items found.
SHARE
Get 3 brand & industry
breakdowns every week
Subscribe to the newsletter
Oops! Something went wrong while submitting the form.

Get a Demo

Please enter your first name
Please enter your last name
Please provide a valid email
Please enter your email
Please enter company name

Thanks for reaching out!

One of our experts will be in touch soon

Try Placer.ai Free
Oops! Something went wrong while submitting the form.

Recent Publications

Get 3 brand & industry breakdowns every week

Subscribe to the newsletter
Home Depot and Lowe’s Heading Into the Holidays
Starbucks and Dutch Bros: Short Visits Lead the Way
Planet Fitness: Raising the Bar(bell)
Checking in With Full-Service Restaurants: First Watch, Chili’s, and Outback Steakhouse
RBI and Yum!: QSR Resilience in 2024
Boot Barn and DSW: Stepping Up Their Game
Target’s October Circle Week: A Data-Driven Snapshot
Chipotle, Shake Shack & Wingstop: Dining Success in Q3 2024
Playa Bowls and Tropical Smoothie Cafe: Berry Big Business
Cheesecake Factory & BJ’s Restaurants: Full-Service Success
Checking in on McDonald's and Wendy's 
Sprouts Farmers Market: A Specialty Grocer With a Traditional Twist
CAVA: The Craze Continues
Placer.ai Reaches $100M Annual Recurring Revenue
Catching Up With Carter's 
A Texas Roadhouse and LongHorn Steakhouse Showdown
Placer.ai Mall Index: September 2024 Recap – Labor Day Peaks and Holiday Season Predictions
Albertsons Q3 Check-In
Looking Ahead to the 2024 Holiday Season
Trader Joe's: Continuing to Thrive in 2024
Bowlero and AMF: A Ten-Pin Knockout
Recreational Retail: Store Performance in 2024
Placer.ai White Paper Recap – September 2024
A QSR and Fast-Casual Face-Off
Sam’s Club’s In-Store Retail Media Network Opportunity
The Rising Stars: Six Metro Areas Welcoming Young Professionals
Costco in 2024: A Deep Dive
Sherwin-Williams in 2024: Brighter Than a New Lick of Paint
Life Time and Orangetheory: Premium Fitness Flourishing
C-Stores: More Than A Pit Stop
Darden: Dining Dominance Undeterred 
Placer 100 Index for Retail and Dining: August 2024 Recap
Placer.ai Office Index: August 2024 Recap
Placer.ai Mall Index: August 2024 Recap – Back-To-School In Full Swing
Auto Parts Retailers: The Traffic Continues
Pumpkin Spice Works its Magic Once Again
School Season Sparks Retail Growth
Placer.ai White Paper Recap – July & August 2024
Big Lots’ Big Rightsizing Move in Four Data Points
Fun Away From The Sun: Checking in With Eatertainment
Domestic Migration and Population Growth: Strong Currents Off The Carolina Coast
The Civic Impact of Summer Events
Retail Trends in College Towns: A Back-to-School Snapshot
Five Below and Ollie’s Bargain Outlet: Consumers Still on the Hunt for Discounts
Macy’s & Bloomingdale’s: Into 2024 and Beyond
Limited Time Only: The Trend Continues
Beauty in 2024: Many Ways to Win
Dollar General & Dollar Tree: Powering Ahead in Q2 2024
The Home Depot and Lowe's Foot Traffic Remodel in Q2 2024
Superstore Update: Summer Savings Spree
Placer.ai Mall Index: July 2024 Recap – From Fourth of July to Back-to-School
Placer.ai Office Index: July 2024 Recap
Summer Movie Madness: Blockbuster Films Boost Foot Traffic
Driving Success: Toyota in 2024
Denny’s and IHOP: An All-Day Breakfast Matchup
Warby Parker: Seeing Clearly Now
Planet Fitness at the 2024 Halfway Point
Serving Summer 2024: RBI and Yum! Brands Q2 Foot Traffic
Starbucks, Dutch Bros., Dunkin’: Finding Summer Success
Fast Food and Fast Casual Favorites, Plus CosMc’s Takeoff
Chipotle and Sweetgreen: Fast-Casual in Q2 2024
First Watch, Texas Roadhouse, and Applebee’s: An FSR Roundup
Albertsons Companies: H1 2024 Recap
Teaming Up For Success: Sports Stadium Sponsorships
Limited Time Offers: Price Wars Boost Visits
Placer 100 Index for Retail & Dining: June 2024 Recap
Placer.ai Mall Index: June 2024 Recap
Placer.ai Office Index: June 2024 Recap
Inside Out 2: The New Blockbuster Bringing Crowds Back to Theaters
Petco and PetSmart: A Head to Head
Frozen Delights: Exploring Ice Cream Chains Across America
Placer.ai White Paper Recap – June 2024
Barnes & Noble: Writing a New Story
Small Format Stores - Sprouting, Blooming, and Expanding
Retail and Dining on Father’s Day
Thrift Store Visit Scores
Charting Value Grocery’s Visit Growth
Placer 100 Index for Retail & Dining: Introduction and May 2024 Recap
Digging Into Darden: Q2 2024 Update
2024 Retail and Dining Trends Update
TRU and avid: Midscale Hotels on the Rise 
Diving Into Kroger: A Strong Start to 2024
Placer.ai Mall Index: May 2024 Recap – Mall Visits on the Rebound
Placer.ai Office Index: May 2024 Recap
2024 Memorial Day Recap
Las Vegas: A Tourism and Migration Deep Dive
Eatertainment Chains: Full on Food, Fun, and Foot Traffic
The Promise of Luxury Apparel
Catching Up With Ulta Beauty & Gap Brands
Ollie’s Bargain Outlet and Five Below: Q1 2024 Treasure Troves
CAVA Still Going Strong
Driving Success: Auto Parts Chains in 2024
Checking in With DICK’S Sporting Goods
Mother’s Day Shopping and Dining Trends
Placer.ai Mall Index: April 2024 Recap – Retail Resilience Heading into Spring
Dollar Stores Still Gaining Momentum
Off-Price Apparel Chains After Q1 2024: Demographics in the Balance
Walmart, Target, and Wholesale Clubs Continue to Thrive
Home Improvement and Decor Check In
Placer.ai Office Index: April 2024 Recap – Recovery Continues